Climate change is one of this century’s most serious problems. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points to human activity as one of the major causes of global warming. Business as usual may lead to a disastrous transformation of the planet, and recent scientific findings emphasize the growing urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Meinshausen et al. 2009).

The parties to the climate negotiation process under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are struggling to find an agreement that may prevent dangerous climate change. Yet the emission reduction proposals on the negotiating table are not strong enough to ensure that global warming stays at less than 2°C above the preindustrial level. This rise is internationally recognized as the limit to manageable global warming. Anything more than this will increase the damage to the global ecosystem and the risk of abrupt and large-scale climate discontinuities, also known as tipping points.

Rapid and substantial emission reductions are vital, and they require a global structural change, mainly in the energy sector. Most past emissions have stemmed from the energy sector in high-income countries. Less than 25 per cent of cumulated emissions have been caused by developing countries (Stern 2007, 175).1 However, the situation is changing. In recent years, the developing countries’ share of global emissions has been rising, and in 2000 they already accounted for about 55 per cent of yearly global greenhouse gas emissions (WRI 2009).2 High economic growth in some of these countries has led to quickly rising energy demand. As this demand has been satisfied mostly by fossil fuels, emissions have also been rising. Estimates predict a continuation of this trend unless the energy sector, and especially electricity generation, is converted to using low-carbon technology. In a business-as-usual scenario put forward by the International Energy Agency (IEA) global energy-related emissions will rise by 45 per cent between 2006 and 2030 (IEA 2008b, 11). Almost all of this increase (97 per cent) is expected to occur in non-OECD countries, mostly due to greater use of coal.

If these emission patterns prevail, they may lead to a temperature increase of up to 6°C (Schneider 2009, 1104; IEA 2008b, 11). Climate change of this magnitude would be catastrophic. Hundreds of millions of people, mainly in the developing world, might be exposed to water stress, hunger, and extreme weather events of unprecedented magnitude and frequency. Some 30 per cent of global coastal wetlands might be lost, and about half of known plant and animal species might be in danger of extinction (Schneider 2009, 1105; IPCC 2007b). Business as usual is not, therefore, an option.

At the same time, the lack of access to energy and the consequent restrictions to development remain major challenges in developing countries. About 1.3 billion people still live without electricity, mainly in Africa and South Asia (World Bank 2009a). Enhanced energy access is essential if global poverty is to be reduced, but in the past it has always been linked to rising emissions. The challenge therefore lies in decoupling energy and greenhouse gas emissions so that more widespread energy use and decreasing emissions can be achieved simultaneously. The deployment of low-carbon technologies in developed and developing countries on a massive scale must be part of the solution.